Two numbers in ABC’s June state analysis point in opposite directions, and the second one matters more.
Every state had a construction unemployment rate below 10%. All but three (Connecticut, New Jersey and Rhode Island) came in under 7%. By historical standards that’s a tight labor market almost everywhere.
And the national not-seasonally-adjusted rate was 4.7%, up 1.3 percentage points from June 2025, and up 0.6 points from May. Rates worsened month over month in 38 states. Eleven improved. Oklahoma was flat.
The spread between the best and worst markets
The six lowest June rates were Alaska at 1.4%, Wyoming 1.6%, New Hampshire 1.9%, Oklahoma 2.4%, and Colorado and Indiana tied at 2.5%. Alaska’s is the lowest June figure the state has ever recorded, with the third-largest year-over-year decline. Wyoming posted the biggest annual improvement at 0.7 points.
The six highest were Illinois and Minnesota tied at 6.8%, New Mexico 6.9%, Rhode Island 8.5%, New Jersey 8.9%, Connecticut 9.9%. New Mexico had the largest month-over-month drop in the country at 1.8 points, which is the sort of swing one large project start can produce in a small state.
Payroll construction employment was 59,000 higher than June 2025, the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year gains below 100,000. Seasonally adjusted, employment sits at 8.3 million, 9.5% above the pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million. Thirty-four states have construction unemployment below their February 2020 level.
What the economist is watching
Bernard Markstein, president and chief economist of Markstein Advisors, who ran the analysis for ABC, listed the pressures: “The on-again, off-again active hostilities against Iran have injected more than the usual volatility in energy prices. Overall, energy prices are significantly higher than a year ago, which is having a negative impact on the construction industry. Moreover, increased insurance premiums, rising labor costs, shortages of skilled labor and elevated interest rates all continue to be impediments to construction activity.”
On trade policy he was equally direct: “The imposition of tariffs—both in place and proposed—on building materials is creating an additional headache for the industry, further reducing willingness to undertake new construction projects and driving up the cost of many current projects.”
The diesel line in heavy-civil cost structures and the materials line in bid packages are the same energy story showing up twice. Sub-5% unemployment with 38 states moving the wrong way is a market where labor is still scarce and demand is thinning at the same time. That is an awkward combination to price.