BHP Jansen Potash Mine Stage 1, Saskatchewan

Jansen Stage 1 was sanctioned in August 2021 at US$5.7 billion. In January 2026 BHP reset the number to US$8.4 billion. That’s a 47% increase on a fully engineered, board-approved project, and unusually, BHP published the reasons.

Project Scope

Stage 1 was 75% complete in early 2026, and BHP confirmed in June that it’s hitting the critical-path milestones set in the revised schedule. First production still holds at mid-2027. Two shafts, each roughly 8 meters across and about a kilometer deep, were excavated and lined by a Ledcor, Thyssen Mining and Redpath team; shaft work finished in June 2022. Stage 2, approved in October 2023 at US$4.9 billion, was re-estimated on June 18, 2026 at US$6.9 billion with first production pushed to late FY2031. It stood at 16% complete at the end of May 2026 with engineering 83% done. BHP flagged an expected impairment of about US$2.3 billion against the Jansen asset base as at June 30, 2026.

Why It Matters

The cost drivers BHP named read like a list of everything hitting heavy industrial construction since 2021: additional construction hours and material quantities, escalation, design development and scope changes, and lower productivity outcomes. That last item is a rare public admission from an owner of this size, and it’s the one worth arguing about. At full ramp the two stages produce 8.5 million tonnes a year, roughly a tenth of global potash, at a projected US$114 to US$130 a tonne with a mine life approaching 60 years. Construction has generated more than 5,500 workforce opportunities against 900 permanent BHP roles at steady state, on a total commitment of around C$14 billion.

Project Team & Details