April broke a slide. Dodge Construction Network’s Momentum Index rose 6.2% to 264.2 in April, lifting nonresidential planning out of a three-month soft patch and pushing commercial activity 8.1% higher month-over-month. Institutional momentum nudged up 1.5%.
The index, which tracks projects entering planning roughly a year ahead of breaking ground, has been trying to find a floor for most of 2026. Owner confidence has wobbled on a combination of higher financing costs, sticky material prices, and worker shortages that show up as bid contingencies before they show up as delays.
What’s actually pulling the index up
Data centers. Again. Dodge expects data center construction to grow another 7% in the coming year, to roughly $195 billion. Without that single category, commercial planning would have been down 12.7% versus March 2025. That’s a meaningful gap, and it’s worth keeping in mind whenever someone calls the nonresidential market “broadly healthy.”
Distribution, warehousing, and hospitality picked up too, but at much smaller dollar totals. Office is still soft. Retail is mixed by region.
The institutional side is quieter but steadier
Schools, healthcare, and government planning rose 1.5% in April. Healthcare in particular has been a steady driver since 2024, with Sun Belt systems pushing capital programs through despite higher borrowing costs. Public-sector institutional work continues to ride out federal funding streams that were committed in 2022-2024.
What to watch
The DMI is a leading indicator, not a guarantee. Recent reports from the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index show new design contract values still declining — the 25th straight monthly drop in March. That’s the tell. Planning is up, but owners aren’t yet writing the contract that turns plans into shovels.
If material prices hold and the Fed eases later this year, the gap should narrow. If not, expect the DMI to keep moving in fits and starts.
Source: Dodge Construction Network, “Dodge Momentum Index Accelerates 6% in April”