The math on Canadian lumber duties is about to get more confusing, and not in a way that helps builders. The antidumping and countervailing rates on Canadian softwood are set to drop to roughly 25.9% combined in August, a real cut from where they’ve sat. Then a new 10% Section 232 tariff lands on top, pushing the all-in burden back toward 36%.
So the duty rate falls and the cost barely moves. Welcome to trade policy.
What’s actually changing on Canadian lumber duties
The latest administrative review trimmed the antidumping rate from 20.6% to 10.7% and nudged the countervailing duty from 14.6% to 14.2%. On their own, those cuts would have given importers some relief. But the Section 232 action stacks a separate 10% national-security tariff on Canadian shipments, which cancels out most of the benefit. The combined effect, once everything takes hold in August, leaves Canadian lumber facing close to 36% in total charges.
For a contractor pricing a wood-framed project, the takeaway is simple. Don’t model the duty cut as a cost reduction. It isn’t one.
Why framing prices are climbing anyway
Here’s the part that should worry estimators. Even with all that policy noise, U.S. framing lumber prices are heading up. The NAHB framing composite rose about 5% in the second quarter to roughly $917 per thousand board feet, reversing two quarters of decline. Futures on the exchange tell a softer story, trading nearer $600, but the cash market that mills and yards actually transact in is tightening.
The reason is supply, not a building boom. Demand from housing is still muted. What’s changed is that U.S. sawmills haven’t scaled up fast enough to cover the drop in Canadian imports, and analysts expect more Canadian curtailments and closures as duties bite. Tight supply meeting flat demand still pushes prices up. It just does it quietly.
What it means for 2026 budgets
Lumber is now the second materials line, after steel, where trade policy is doing more to set the price than the demand curve is. It’s a familiar pattern this year, alongside the 50% steel tariffs and the broader run-up in construction input prices. Builders carrying wood-framed multifamily or single-family work should budget for firm-to-rising lumber costs through the year, hold contingencies, and lock supply where they can. The duty headline will read like good news in August. The invoices won’t.