The number that cleared the noise in the August residential data is completions: down 27.1% year over year, and one of the few moves in the release that’s statistically significant.
Census and HUD put total housing starts at 1,275,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in August, down 2.6% from a revised July and 1.2% below August 2025. Both of those carry a 90% confidence interval wide enough to contain zero. Completions do not: 1,128,000 SAAR, down 11.9% for the month and down 27.1% from 1,548,000 a year earlier.
Single-Family Went One Way, Multifamily the Other
Single-family starts rose 7.6% month over month to 918,000 and are up 5.2% year over year. Multifamily starts of five units or more fell 22.5% for the month and 15.5% year over year, to 344,000. That divergence is the entire headline decline.
Permits tell a milder story. Total permits of 1,394,000 were down 2.7% from July but up 3.5% from a year ago. Single-family permits of 878,000 slipped 1.8% for the month. Permits for buildings with five or more units rose 9.4% year over year, to 467,000.
The Backlog Is Where the Story Is
Units authorized but not started hit 280,000 seasonally adjusted, up 12.9% year over year and the highest in the series shown. For the five-plus segment that shadow backlog is 128,000, up 15.3%.
Units under construction fell to 1,271,000, down 3.2% year over year, with the five-plus count down 2.5% to 666,000. Year to date, completions are down 12.9% against 2025, 580,900 units against 657,600 not seasonally adjusted.
Read together: builders are pulling permits and then sitting on them, work in place is thinning, and supply arriving to market is falling faster than anything else in the release. That’s a financing problem, not a demand signal.
Regional Splits and Housekeeping
Month-over-month starts by region: Northeast down 44.5%, Midwest down 12.0%, South down 1.3%, West up 32.4%.
August figures are preliminary and July is revised. Census warns it takes roughly six months to establish a trend in starts and completions, and Table 1 carried a 75.8% response rate. The next release is October 20.
On sentiment, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 32 on September 16, with 38% of builders cutting prices and 66% using incentives. Office conversions are one of the few residential formats where the land basis is low enough to pencil right now, which is why a deal like 2051 Jamieson Avenue in Alexandria traded at 11% of its 2008 price and came with entitlements attached.