Construction employment rose in 36 states over the year to July. It fell in California by 6,700, and Texas, which added more jobs than any other state over 12 months, lost 3,400 in the month alone.
AGC of America published its analysis of the July state employment data on Aug. 21. The headline is broad growth. The detail underneath is a market splitting along regional lines, with the Gulf and the industrial Midwest hiring while the coasts shed.
Twelve-month winners
Texas added the most in absolute terms at 17,500 jobs, up 1.9%. Louisiana posted the largest percentage gain in the country at 11.4%, adding 15,500 — a number driven by LNG, petrochemical and grid work rather than by buildings.
North Carolina added 15,400 (5.5%), Ohio 13,700 (5.3%) and Illinois 12,700 (5.3%). Behind them on percentage: Wyoming at 6.2%, Oklahoma at 5.5% and Nebraska at 5.5%.
Twelve-month losers
California shed the most, 6,700 jobs or 0.7%. Then Virginia at 5,800 (2.5%), New York at 5,700 (1.5%), New Jersey at 4,900 (2.9%) and Georgia at 3,200 (1.4%).
On percentage the worst was Alaska at 3.7%, followed by New Jersey, Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine, all around 2.5%. Thirteen states lost jobs. Vermont was flat.
The monthly picture is noisier and more interesting
Twenty-eight states added jobs month over month. Illinois led at 3,200 (1.3%), then Ohio at 3,000, California at 2,900 and Florida at 2,900. Mississippi posted the biggest percentage gain at 1.9%.
Texas lost 3,400 in July even while leading the country over 12 months. Alabama dropped 2,200 (1.9%), Washington 2,100 (1.0%). West Virginia had the largest monthly percentage decline at 2.8%.
Note that California appears on both lists: down 6,700 over the year, up 2,900 in the month. That’s what a market turning looks like in monthly data, and it’s also a reminder that these are modeled BLS estimates subject to revision.
What AGC’s economist is watching
“Construction employment gains were widespread in July on both a monthly and year-over-year basis,” said Ken Simonson, AGC’s chief economist. “Nevertheless, there are several risks to continuing increases in employment, including a potential lapse in federal highway funding, growing opposition to data centers, and ongoing shifts in tariff policy.”
All three of those are live right now. Federal surface transportation authorization expires Sept. 30. And the tariff question isn’t abstract: Commerce is taking comment through tomorrow on extending Section 232 duties to cranes, cable and welding equipment.
Why it matters
The regional split is the actionable part. Louisiana up 11.4% and Alaska down 3.7% in the same national market means craft labor availability is a state-level question now, not a national one, and firms bidding across state lines should be pricing it that way.
It also cuts against the single-number story. Total starts jumped 25.6% in July on the strength of 25 billion-dollar projects, but very large projects concentrate employment in a handful of counties. A state can log a record start and still lose construction jobs, which is roughly what Texas just did.