The top-line looks great. Nonresidential construction is growing at its fastest clip since COVID, according to ConstructConnect’s July brief. Look underneath and the growth is coming from a narrow set of very large projects, which is either reassuring or worrying depending on where your work sits.
Two segments doing the heavy lifting
Data centers lead, with ConstructConnect forecasting roughly $129 billion in starts for 2026. Factories are the other engine, propelled by chip and battery investment. Together they’re pulling the nonresidential average up fast enough to set a post-pandemic record. The Microsoft campus in Mount Pleasant is one data point in a national wave that’s soaking up concrete, switchgear and electricians.
The parts that aren’t booming
Strip out data centers and factories and the picture cools quickly. Warehouse starts have pulled back from their pandemic frenzy, and office remains soft. That’s the shape of a K: a couple of segments sprinting while the rest walk. For a contractor without a foot in the data center or advanced-manufacturing door, the record headline doesn’t describe the pipeline they’re actually bidding.
Why concentration is a risk
A boom carried by two categories is only as durable as those categories. If the AI capital cycle slows or a few hyperscalers pause, the national number could turn quickly, and the firms that retooled around data center work would feel it first. For now the money is flowing, the starts are real, and the smart read is to enjoy the run while watching the concentration that makes it fragile.