Nonresidential planning had a strong May. The Dodge Momentum Index climbed 5.9% to 275.7, up from a downwardly revised April reading of 260.4, according to the report Dodge Construction Network released June 5. The index tracks the value of projects entering planning, and it tends to lead actual construction spending by roughly a year. So this is a read on 2027, not a snapshot of today’s jobsites.
Data centers again, but not only data centers
The headline driver won’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention. Data center activity led the gains, as it has for most of the past two years. What’s more interesting is the breadth underneath the number. Commercial planning rose 6.9% on the month, and the categories that have been quiet, healthcare, retail, and offices, all added momentum. Institutional planning grew 3.1%.
That mix matters. A momentum index propped up entirely by hyperscale data centers is a narrow bet on a single demand source that could cool fast. One with healthcare and retail joining in looks more like a broadening recovery, the kind that gives contractors outside the data-center supply chain something to bid on. Offices showing any life at all is its own small surprise, given how long that sector has been written off.
The caution behind the number
Dodge paired the gain with the usual warning, and it’s worth taking seriously. Planning momentum is sentiment with a dollar figure attached. It reflects what owners want to build, not what they’ve financed or broken ground on. Persistent labor constraints, elevated material costs, and supply-chain friction all sit between a project entering planning and a shovel hitting dirt. Plenty of momentum has evaporated in that gap before.
There’s also the revision to keep in mind. April got marked down before May’s jump, which is a reminder that any single month is noisy and the index gets re-cut as better data arrives. The trend line is what counts, and the trend is up.
For builders, the takeaway is cautiously positive. Backlogs have been stretching, and a year-ahead indicator pointing higher across more than one sector is the kind of signal that supports hiring and equipment decisions, if the financing follows. It usually does, eventually. The question is always how much leaks out along the way. Exchange covered the parallel read from the demand side in May’s three-year-high contractor backlog; the planning data says the pipeline behind it is still filling.